Discussion:
Hell Countess runs report
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CaVeDoG
2003-12-19 03:17:50 UTC
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I was doing some hell countess runs hoping to come across an ist (I know,
you'd have to get pretty lucky). I remember a little while ago some people
wanted info on how good countess runs are in certain difficulties so I made
a little program to show some stuff about the runs. If you're wondering why
it only goes up to Ist, that's the highest rune the countess can drop.
~~Rune Report~~
[General]
Total Runs - 50
Total Runes - 87
Highest Rune - Fal (19)
[Runes Per Run]
0 - 2 (4.00%)
1 - 17 (34.00%)
2 - 23 (46.00%)
3 - 8 (16.00%)
[Runes]
El - 24 (27.59%)
Eld - 16 (18.39%)
Tir - 9 (10.34%)
Nef - 5 (5.75%)
Eth - 2 (2.30%)
Ith - 5 (5.75%)
Tal - 7 (8.05%)
Ral - 2 (2.30%)
Ort - 1 (1.15%)
Thul - 4 (4.60%)
Amn - 3 (3.45%)
Sol - 5 (5.75%)
Shael - 0 (0.00%)
Dol - 0 (0.00%)
Hel - 3 (3.45%)
Io - 0 (0.00%)
Lum - 0 (0.00%)
Ko - 0 (0.00%)
Fal - 1 (1.15%)
Lem - 0 (0.00%)
Pul - 0 (0.00%)
Um - 0 (0.00%)
Mal - 0 (0.00%)
Ist - 0 (0.00%)
Narzug
2003-12-19 07:40:20 UTC
Permalink
The highest rune countess hell can drop is: "LO"
Chances:
El Rune 41.631072% 1:2.4
Eld Rune 29.3429216% 1:3.4
Tir Rune 24.905412% 1:4
Eth Rune 17.9170426% 1:5.6
Nef Rune 17.1155262% 1:5.8
Tal Rune 15.089539% 1:6.6
Ith Rune 12.1994902% 1:8.2
Ort Rune 10.7307951% 1:9.3
Ral Rune 10.2377019% 1:9.8
Thul Rune 7.241873% 1:14
Amn Rune 6.6518948% 1:15
Sol Rune 4.4677304% 1:22
Shael Rune 3.5479219% 1:28
Dol Rune 2.3745656% 1:42
Hel Rune 1.8336809% 1:55
Io Rune 1.2249136% 1:82
Lum Rune 0.9323419% 1:107
Ko Rune 0.6221944% 1:161
Fal Rune 0.4701207% 1:213
Lem Rune 0.3135744% 1:319
Pul Rune 0.2360572% 1:424
Um Rune 0.157412% 1:635
Mal Rune 0.1351686% 1:740
Ist Rune 0.0901257% 1:1110
Gul Rune 0.0008193% 1:122049
Vex Rune 0.0005462% 1:183073
Ohm Rune 0.0004685% 1:213465
Lo Rune 0.0003123% 1:320197
Post by CaVeDoG
I was doing some hell countess runs hoping to come across an ist (I know,
you'd have to get pretty lucky). I remember a little while ago some people
wanted info on how good countess runs are in certain difficulties so I made
a little program to show some stuff about the runs. If you're wondering why
it only goes up to Ist, that's the highest rune the countess can drop.
~~Rune Report~~
[General]
Total Runs - 50
Total Runes - 87
Highest Rune - Fal (19)
[Runes Per Run]
0 - 2 (4.00%)
1 - 17 (34.00%)
2 - 23 (46.00%)
3 - 8 (16.00%)
[Runes]
El - 24 (27.59%)
Eld - 16 (18.39%)
Tir - 9 (10.34%)
Nef - 5 (5.75%)
Eth - 2 (2.30%)
Ith - 5 (5.75%)
Tal - 7 (8.05%)
Ral - 2 (2.30%)
Ort - 1 (1.15%)
Thul - 4 (4.60%)
Amn - 3 (3.45%)
Sol - 5 (5.75%)
Shael - 0 (0.00%)
Dol - 0 (0.00%)
Hel - 3 (3.45%)
Io - 0 (0.00%)
Lum - 0 (0.00%)
Ko - 0 (0.00%)
Fal - 1 (1.15%)
Lem - 0 (0.00%)
Pul - 0 (0.00%)
Um - 0 (0.00%)
Mal - 0 (0.00%)
Ist - 0 (0.00%)
David Carson
2003-12-20 03:01:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Narzug
If you're wondering why it only goes up to Ist, that's the highest
rune the countess can drop.
The highest rune countess hell can drop is: "LO"
Well, I think he means the highest rune the Countess can drop from her
special rune drop. Sure she can drop a Lo from her normal item drop, but
as your numbers show.. the chances drop off pretty bad. :-)
Post by Narzug
Mal Rune 0.1351686% 1:740
Ist Rune 0.0901257% 1:1110
Gul Rune 0.0008193% 1:122049
Vex Rune 0.0005462% 1:183073
Ohm Rune 0.0004685% 1:213465
Lo Rune 0.0003123% 1:320197
But on thing I found odd..
Post by Narzug
[Runes Per Run]
0 - 2 (4.00%)
1 - 17 (34.00%)
2 - 23 (46.00%)
3 - 8 (16.00%)
..I didn't think it was possible for the Countess to drop NO runes?? I
thought it was 5 normal item picks, some of which probably will be no
drops, and then 3 runes, but no more than 6 items total. So the worst
you could do was 1. Or is this to do with piles of gold being counted as
multiple items?
Cheers!
David...
CaVeDoG
2003-12-19 09:08:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by David Carson
..I didn't think it was possible for the Countess to drop NO runes?? I
thought it was 5 normal item picks, some of which probably will be no
drops, and then 3 runes, but no more than 6 items total. So the worst
you could do was 1. Or is this to do with piles of gold being counted as
multiple items?
Cheers!
David...
I was surprised when that happened too, but I am 100% positive on those 2
runs that no runes were dropped.
David Carson
2003-12-20 06:24:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by CaVeDoG
Post by David Carson
..I didn't think it was possible for the Countess to drop NO runes?? I
thought it was 5 normal item picks, some of which probably will be no
drops, and then 3 runes, but no more than 6 items total. So the worst
you could do was 1. Or is this to do with piles of gold being counted as
multiple items?
I was surprised when that happened too, but I am 100% positive on those 2
runs that no runes were dropped.
Aha, further study of the TreasureClassEx.txt data reveals this: the
Hell Countess gets 3 picks from the "Countess Rune (H)" treasure class,
which I thought flowed straight through to "Runes 12" (runes up to Ist).
But I was misremembering! Actually it's a 25% chance of no drop, and a
75% chance of "Runes 12".
So her rune drop is actually 3 rolls at a 75% chance of a rune, limited
by the fact that each of her 5 item picks had a 71.6% chance of dropping
an item, and items + runes cannot add to more than 6 things total.
So, you would expect 1 run in every 64 to drop no runes - I guess you
were unlucky.
Cheers!
David...
Babe Bridou
2003-12-19 11:13:07 UTC
Permalink
David Carson <***@eldergothSPAMTRAP.com> wrote in message news:<3fe2afd5$0$1736$***@freenews.iinet.net.au>...
snip
Post by David Carson
But on thing I found odd..
Post by CaVeDoG
[Runes Per Run]
0 - 2 (4.00%)
1 - 17 (34.00%)
2 - 23 (46.00%)
3 - 8 (16.00%)
..I didn't think it was possible for the Countess to drop NO runes?? I
thought it was 5 normal item picks, some of which probably will be no
drops, and then 3 runes, but no more than 6 items total. So the worst
you could do was 1. Or is this to do with piles of gold being counted as
multiple items?
The TC "rune1" either drops an EL, an ELD or nothing at all.
the TC "rune2" either drops a TIR, a NEF or a "rune1".
..and so on.
so yes, there is a slim probability for the countess to drop no rune at all.
happy friday
BB
David Carson
2003-12-20 06:26:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Babe Bridou
Post by David Carson
..I didn't think it was possible for the Countess to drop NO runes?? I
thought it was 5 normal item picks, some of which probably will be no
drops, and then 3 runes, but no more than 6 items total.
The TC "rune1" either drops an EL, an ELD or nothing at all.
the TC "rune2" either drops a TIR, a NEF or a "rune1".
..and so on.
so yes, there is a slim probability for the countess to drop no rune at all.
Nope, I figured it out, TC "Runes 1" is a 60% chance of El, 40% chance
of Eld, there is no "no drop" chance.. but the Countess's "Countess Rune
(H)" TC has a 25% chance of "no drop" in it..
Cheers!
David...
Frodo
2003-12-19 18:50:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Narzug
The highest rune countess hell can drop is: "LO"
I saw on d2data.net that IST is highest.
?
Brian Brunner
2003-12-19 19:53:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frodo
Post by Narzug
The highest rune countess hell can drop is: "LO"
I saw on d2data.net that IST is highest.
?
There's a difference between
1: what she can drop as her special 'rune drop' feature (sounds like an
ice-cream topping) and
2: her drop ability as a dying monster of her particular level.
So... you only have 9 fingers now?
--
USEast SC: Claransa, Mudstomper.
USEast HC: Rockstomper
USWest SC: Mudstomper
USEast HC Ladder: Dirtstomper
Europe HC Ladder: Dirtstomper
Brian Brunner
2003-12-19 17:22:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by CaVeDoG
[General]
Total Runs - 50
[Runes]
El - 24 (27.59%)
That's 8 Eld
Post by CaVeDoG
Eld - 16 (18.39%)
24 Eld is 8 Tir
Post by CaVeDoG
Tir - 9 (10.34%)
9+8=17 Tir is 5 Nef, 2 Tir
Post by CaVeDoG
Nef - 5 (5.75%)
5+5=10 Nef is 3 Eth, 1 Nef
Post by CaVeDoG
Eth - 2 (2.30%)
2+3=5 Eth is 1 Ith, 2 Eth
Post by CaVeDoG
Ith - 5 (5.75%)
1+5=6 Ith is 2 Tal
Post by CaVeDoG
Tal - 7 (8.05%)
2+7=9 Tal is 3 Ral
Post by CaVeDoG
Ral - 2 (2.30%)
2+3=5 Ral is 1 Ort, 2 Ral
Post by CaVeDoG
Ort - 1 (1.15%)
1+1=2 Ort is 0 Thul, 2 Ort
Post by CaVeDoG
Thul - 4 (4.60%)
0+4=4 Thul is 1 Amn, 1 Thul
Post by CaVeDoG
Amn - 3 (3.45%)
3+1=4 Amn is 1 Sol, 1 Amn
Post by CaVeDoG
Sol - 5 (5.75%)
1+5=6 Sol is 2 shael
Post by CaVeDoG
Shael - 0 (0.00%)
0+2=2 Shael is 0 Dol, 2 shael
Post by CaVeDoG
Dol - 0 (0.00%)
Hel - 3 (3.45%)
1 IO
Post by CaVeDoG
Io - 0 (0.00%)
Lum - 0 (0.00%)
Ko - 0 (0.00%)
Fal - 1 (1.15%)
1 Fal
<zeros snipped>
2 Tir 1 Nef 2 Eth 2 Ral 2 Ort 1 Thul 1 Amn 2 Shael 1 Io 1 Fal
50 hell countess runs. How many more to get a Zod?
--
USEast SC: Claransa, Mudstomper.
USEast HC: Rockstomper
USWest SC: Mudstomper
USEast HC Ladder: Dirtstomper
Europe HC Ladder: Dirtstomper
CaVeDoG
2003-12-19 21:54:00 UTC
Permalink
I've just finished another 50 runs and combined the drops for all 100
together.
~~Rune Report~~
[General]
Total Runs - 100
Total Runes - 183
Highest Rune - Fal (19)
[Runes Per Run]
Average - 1.83
0 - 2 (2.00%)
1 - 34 (34.00%)
2 - 43 (43.00%)
3 - 21 (21.00%)
[Runes]
El - 40 (21.86%)
Eld - 31 (16.94%)
Tir - 23 (12.57%)
Nef - 10 (5.46%)
Eth - 8 (4.37%)
Ith - 13 (7.10%)
Tal - 12 (6.56%)
Ral - 4 (2.19%)
Ort - 7 (3.83%)
Thul - 11 (6.01%)
Amn - 5 (2.73%)
Sol - 8 (4.37%)
Shael - 1 (0.55%)
Dol - 2 (1.09%)
Hel - 3 (1.64%)
Io - 1 (0.55%)
Lum - 2 (1.09%)
Ko - 1 (0.55%)
Fal - 1 (0.55%)
Bingain
2003-12-19 22:19:56 UTC
Permalink
How long did it take for these 100 runs?
Bing
Post by CaVeDoG
I've just finished another 50 runs and combined the drops for all 100
together.
~~Rune Report~~
[General]
Total Runs - 100
Total Runes - 183
Highest Rune - Fal (19)
[Runes Per Run]
Average - 1.83
0 - 2 (2.00%)
1 - 34 (34.00%)
2 - 43 (43.00%)
3 - 21 (21.00%)
[Runes]
El - 40 (21.86%)
Eld - 31 (16.94%)
Tir - 23 (12.57%)
Nef - 10 (5.46%)
Eth - 8 (4.37%)
Ith - 13 (7.10%)
Tal - 12 (6.56%)
Ral - 4 (2.19%)
Ort - 7 (3.83%)
Thul - 11 (6.01%)
Amn - 5 (2.73%)
Sol - 8 (4.37%)
Shael - 1 (0.55%)
Dol - 2 (1.09%)
Hel - 3 (1.64%)
Io - 1 (0.55%)
Lum - 2 (1.09%)
Ko - 1 (0.55%)
Fal - 1 (0.55%)
David Carson
2003-12-20 19:04:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by CaVeDoG
I've just finished another 50 runs and combined the drops for all 100
together.
~~Rune Report~~
[General]
Total Runs - 100
Total Runes - 183
Highest Rune - Fal (19)
[Runes Per Run]
Average - 1.83
0 - 2 (2.00%)
1 - 34 (34.00%)
2 - 43 (43.00%)
3 - 21 (21.00%)
Excellent.. I crunched some numbers and come up with the following
probabilities for numbers of runes:
0 - 1.5%
1 - 30%
2 - 50%
3 - 18.5%
..for an average number of runes per run of 1.855.
Great to see that your numbers get closer and closer to my prediction as
you do more runs. :-)
Cheers!
David...
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CaVeDoG2003-12-19 03:17:50 UTC